LETS GET TO THE BOTTOM OF THIS

Thursday 09 Aug 2018

As the slide in property values experienced since March this year continues, the move by ANZ to cut the rates on some of its new customer products may see buyers move into the market, as history has shown that falling rates generally trigger a rise in prices. In a tightening lending environment the banks will be fighting hard for new business to maintain profit levels. Whether property prices continue to fall, rise or move to a holding pattern, it may be that the bottom of the market is closing upon us.

 

As is usually the case, only a small percentage of buyers pick the bottom of the cycle as most falls last less than 12 months. When the GFC started to impact on property prices in late 2008, the reserve bank commenced a strategy of constant rate cutting of the cash rate, which after 12 months saw prices stabilize. 2010 saw a growth in property values above pre-GFC values.

 

After 5 years of rapid growth since 2013, the chance of a correction was high. Some pundits put the slide as starting in late 2017, although with some standout sale prices in the first quarter it hadn’t fully impacted. But the past 4 months have seen a strong decline in stand-out sales results. With the beginning of a more competitive interest rate environment likely, just where is the market headed?

- Jonathan Ford